Check our Elite 8 expert picks and predictions for Saturday, March 29th
Points should flow freely when Bama’s offense meets Duke
Read below for my top Saturday March Madness predictions, including a player prop bet
The Elite Eight tips off Saturday with two high-stakes matchups that will determine half our Final Four lineup. Top-seeded Florida brings a nine-game win streak against a resilient Texas Tech squad, while Alabama’s record-setting offense meets Duke’s dominant two-way attack in the nightcap.
After digging into the numbers, trends and matchups, I’ve identified four college basketball picks with value for Saturday’s Elite Eight action on March 29.
Elite Eight Odds (March 29)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | +6.5 (-110) | +245 | O 156.5 (-110) |
| Florida | -6.5 (-110) | -308 | U 156.5 (-110) |
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Alabama | +6.5 (+100) | +235 | O 174.5 (-110) |
| Duke | -6.5 (-122) | -292 | U 174.5 (-110) |
Elite Eight odds as of 2pm ET on March 29 at top-rated March Madness betting sites.
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Texas Tech vs Florida Prediction
I’m grabbing the points with Texas Tech against Florida in San Francisco. The Gators (33-4) are rolling with nine straight wins, but this spread feels a touch inflated with 75% of betting tickets and 77% of money coming in on Florida. The Red Raiders (28-8) showed serious toughness erasing a 16-point deficit against Arkansas, and they have the personnel to keep this competitive.
The offensive numbers favor Florida (85.5 PPG, 2nd in efficiency) over Texas Tech (79 PPG in last ten games), but tournament basketball often tightens up in the Elite Eight.
Big man JT Toppin brings a consistent double-double threat that can neutralize Florida’s frontcourt advantage. The Red Raiders’ more methodical approach should also slow down the Gators, who’ve been lighting up scoreboards with 91 PPG over their last ten contests.
The injury report matters here. Texas Tech has been without shooter Chance McMillian since mid-March, while Florida’s Alex Condon is dealing with an ankle issue. With the spread hovering around 6.5-7.5 points, the value is on the more battle-tested Red Raiders.
Florida might win straight up, but history favors underdogs in the Elite Eight. Since 2016, betting underdogs have covered at a 59% clip in this round, going 29-19-1 ATS in Elite Eight games.
The Pick: Texas Tech +6.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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