Illinois is a 7.5-point favorite over Rutgers on Friday night
Rutgers is 2-5 ATS; Rutgers is 1-6 ATS
Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
Illinois (5-2) is a 7.5-point home favorite against Rutgers in the Big Ten season opener for both Friday at 7pm ET on ESPN2. The Illini dropped out of the AP Top 25 for the first time this week after consecutive losses to Marquette and Cincinnati two weeks ago.
Rutgers (4-3) beat Clemson in its most recent game Tuesday, its second straight victory over the Tigers. The No. 10 seed Scarlet Knights beat the seventh-seeded Tigers 60-56 in the first round of the 2020-21 NCAA tournament.
Rutgers vs Illinois
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | +270 | +7.5 (-114) | Over 133.5 (-110) |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | -345 | -7.5 (-106) | Under 133.5 (-110) |
Odds from DraftKings on Dec. 2
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The Fighting Illini and the Scarlet Knights can feel good about both themselves and the league following the 14-team Big Ten/ACC Challenge, which was dominated by the Big Ten.
Illinois stopped Notre Dame 82-72 on Monday behind Kofi Cockburn’s 28 points. Rutgers broke a three-game losing streak with a 74-64 home victory over Clemson, covering the 1.5-point spread after failing to cover in any of the previous six. Rutgers has been favored in all seven of its games this season.
Cockburn Scores Big
The Illini are 3-1 since the focal point of their team, 7′ preseason All-American center Kofi Cockburn, returned from a three-game NCAA suspension. He is averaging 26.6 points a game, which would lead NCAA Division I if he had enough games to qualify.
Cockburn had 18 points and seven rebounds when Illinois followed a loss at Marquette by falling flat in his first game back, a 71-51 home loss to Cincinnati, but has put up big numbers since. He had a career-high 38 points in a 94-85 victory over Texas-Rio Grande Valley last Friday and had 28 points in the 82-72 victory over Notre Dame.
With 2020-21 leading scorer Ayo Dosunmu gone, Cockburn has become an even more integral part of an offense after averaging 17.7 points and 9.5 rebounds a year ago. And with Cockburn on the boards, the Illini have a plus-12.2 rebound margin.
Returning guards Andre Curbelo (9.3 points, 5.5 assists) and Trent Frazier (8.4 points) have been joined by Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer (13.9 points) on the perimeter, although both Frazier and Curbelo have ceded recent time to volume distance shooter Plummer because of injuries. Plummer had 21 points against Notre Dame.
Frazier, whose presence on the point makes the offense better, came off the bench against Notre Dame after suffering a knee injury in a 72-64 victory Kansas State on Nov. 23. Curbelo, who suffered concussion three weeks ago, played sparingly in the second half of the Kansas State game, and he has not played in the last two.
Illinois is deep, but not enough to survive the extended losses of Curbelo and Frazier.
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Rutgers’ Tough Stretch
Before stopping Clemson in the Big Ten/ACC challenge, Rutgers lost its previous three games to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass by a total of seven points, with all of the losses coming in the final seconds.
Leader and do-everything guard 6’6 Ron Harper Jr. is averaging 16.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists, and he had 23 points and nine rebounds against Clemson.
Rutgers plays primarily man-to-man defense, so 6’11 senior Clifford Omoruyi will see a lot of Cockburn. Omoruyi averaging 12.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, will see a lot of Cockburn.
Senior point guard Geo Baker, who averaged 10.4 points and 3.2 assists a year ago, has missed the last two games after suffering an apparent hamstring injury in the 53-51 loss to Lafayette on Nov. 22. He has averaged in double figures the last four years and is missed.
Guard Caleb McConnell had 16 points and six rebounds in 32 minutes against Clemson, and freshman guards Jalen Miller and Jaden Jones have received minutes in Baker’s absence.
By the Numbers
Illinois is 9-3 against Rutgers, 7-5 ATS, since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2015. The Illini and are 6-0 at home, 5-2 ATS in that stretch, in including a 90-68 win in the Big Ten tournament last season.
Illinois covered the eight-point number in a 90-68 win in New Jersey last season after Rutgers had covered the previous four, three as an underdog. The last time in Champaign, Rutgers fell 54-51 despite limiting the Illini to 28.6 shooting from the floor, the the lowest opponents’ shooting percentage in Big Ten play.
Illinois is No. 22 in KenPom offensive efficiency margin and is in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Rutgers is 88th in overall efficiency and is 314th in average tempo, averaging about three fewer possessions a game than the Illini. Illinois was 9-4 as a home favorite a year ago. Rutgers was 3-3 as a road dog.
Backcourt injuries on both sides make a prediction problematic, so taking the points make sense.
The pick: Rutgers +7.5 (-106)