Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is a massive -1800 favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy
Mendoza was +5000 in the preseason Heisman Trophy odds
Keep reading for the 2025 Heisman Ceremony start time, finalists, prediction and closing odds
This year’s Heisman Trophy race is one of the worst we’ve seen in quite some time. No one player stood head and shoulders above the rest, while the highest graded contender didn’t even crack the final four.
20 of the past 25 winners in the Heisman Trophy odds have been quarterbacks, and online sportsbooks expect that trend to continue this season when the champion is announced at Saturday’s Heisman Ceremony.
Heisman Ceremony Start Time
The event is scheduled to start at 8 pm ET from Jazz at Lincoln Center’s Appel Room in New York City. ABC will provide the TV coverage, while college football broadcast legend Chris Fowler will serve as host.
This year’s finalists have put together good, but not spectacular, resumes, and if you’re willing to dig, you can find holes in each of their cases.
The biggest snub is without a doubt Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who was a standout on one of the top four teams in the country. He was responsible for 11 turnovers this season and was the highest-graded player in college football per PFF.
Heisman Ceremony Finalists
Rodriguez finished fifth in the Heisman voting, behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. The ladder is a massive favorite heading into Saturday’s ceremony, in large part due to him being the biggest standout in recent weeks.
While Saying came up short in the Big Ten Championship Game that pitted the top two favorites in National Championship odds against each other, Mendoza put the Hoosiers on his back in the dying moments. His gutsy 33-yard third-down pass to clinch the conference title is the last signature moment that voters saw, and it capped off an unexpected 13-0 season.
Reliving every iconic TD that paved Fernando Mendoza’s path to becoming a @HeismanTrophy finalist 🙌 pic.twitter.com/4F7HxiUHxy
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 11, 2025
Mendoza has thrown a Bowl Subdivision-best 33 touchdowns so far, and has rushed for six additional scores. He’s the first FBS QB since 1996 with multiple games of 4 touchdowns and a 90%+ completion percentage versus Power 4 opponents, and he broke numerous school records this season.
If you’re looking for cracks in his case, he was outside the top-20 in passing yards and outside the top-50 in attempts. Mendoza also boasts very similar numbers to his Indiana predecessor Kurtis Rourke, who didn’t finish among the final four in last year’s Heisman voting.
The top Heisman vote-getters for spots 5-10:
5. Cam Skattebo, Arizona St RB
6. Bryson Daily, Army QB
7. Tyler Warren, Penn State TE
8. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado QB
9. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana QB
10. Kyle McCord, Syracuse QB pic.twitter.com/5x1Ir896w9
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) December 14, 2024
As for the rest of the finalists, Pavia has the best argument to win the Heisman. He was the most electric player among the group, and shattered a bunch of school records this season. Pavia led Vandy to its first-ever 10-win season, and drew comparisons all year to Johnny Manziel. Unfortunately, he never pulled off a signature upset victory like Johnny Football, and missed out on having a true Heisman moment.
I’m going to bypass Sayin, due to his dramatic slide in the odds. The Ohio State pivot was the favorite to win the Heisman in early November, but his failure to beat Indiana crippled his chances.
Moving on to Love, his 21 all-purpose touchdowns were impressive, but he never showed out on the big stage. The bulk of his production came against the dreads on the Irish’s schedule, and he rushed for only 33 yard on 10 carries in Notre Dame’s biggest game of the season versus Miami.
Heisman Ceremony Predictions
In terms of predicting a Heisman winner, it feels like that’s already been decided. Mendoza’s implied odds give him a 95% chance of winning, and he was just named AP player of the year. Mendoza beat his fellow three fellow finalists to win the award, earning 32 of the 51 first-place votes.
Heisman Trophy Closing Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) | -1800 |
| Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) | +900 |
| Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) | +25000 |
| Julian Sayin (Ohio State) | +50000 |
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Pat yourself on the back if you backed him before the season, when he was +5000 to win the Heisman. At -1800, there is no value on betting him to win the award now, and a wager on any of the other finalists is just a waste of money at this point.
This is a quarterback driven award, unless a once-in-a-lifetime generation burst onto the scene (see Travis Hunter from last season). Mendoza easily has the best case among the final three QB’s standing, and he has the benefit of performing the best most recently.
If Ohio State beats Indiana to win the National Title, Sayin would have had a chance to re-enter the conversation. But, unfortunately for him, this award is handed out a month before a champion is crowned.
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