The Army Black Knights battle the Navy Midshipmen Saturday for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy
Navy QB Blake Horvath has gone back-to-back seasons with 1,000 yards rushing and passing
See below for my Army vs Navy player props and parlay picks
The latest instalment in one of college football’s most storied rivalries goes Saturday, as the Army Black Nights (6-5, 4-4 American) battle the #22 Navy Midshipmen (9-2, 7-1 American) for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
Both teams are bowl bound, so this highly anticipated matchup should bring all the intensity needed for a final tuneup. The Midshipmen are pegged as 6.5-point favorites in the college football odds when this one kicks off at 3pm from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD.
For our purposes, we’re delving into the player props market, with plenty of options to choose from.
Read below for my best player prop bets and parlay picks for Army vs Navy.
Army vs Navy Player Props
| Quarterback | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Horvath (NAVY) | 109.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | 0.5 (Ov +104 / Un -138) | |
| Cale Hellums (ARMY) | 64.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | 0.5 (Ov +280 / Un 420) | |
| Rusher | Rushing Yards | Anytime TD | |
| Blake Horvath (NAVY) | 109.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | -230 | |
| Alex Tecza (NAVY) | 63.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | -145 | |
| Noah Short (ARMY) | 33.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +175 | |
| Cale Hellums (ARMY) | 114.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | -185 | |
| Carson Smith (ARMY) | 15.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +500 | |
| Brandon Chatman (NAVY) | 25.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +400 | |
| Eli Heidenreich (NAVY) | 27.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +170 | |
| Receiver | Receiving Yards | Anytime TD | |
| Eli Heidenreich (NAVY) | 45.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +170 | |
| Noah Short (ARMY) | 18.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +175 | |
| Brady Anderson (ARMY) | 23.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | +900 |
In perhaps the most incredible stat line you might ever read, Navy QB Blake Horvath has identical 109.5 yard rushing and passing props. It’s fitting, though, since he’s the first player in FBS history to churn out back-to-seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and passing in the same campaign.
Army QB Cale Hellmus has the highest rushing prop of all payers at 114.5. Navy receiver Eli Heidenreich has the top receiving yards total at 45.5
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Army vs Navy Player Props Bet #1: Blake Horvath Rush Yards
As mentioned, Horvath is coming off an historic season for the Midshipmen, though his rushing numbers were down to close the year, putting up 60 yards or less in wins over USF and Memphis.
That broke a streak of six straight games where senior rattled off 100+ yards on the ground.
There shouldn’t be any concern here though: the Bulls and Tigers were two of the Top 4 rushing defenses in the American, and were able to limit the conference’s leading rusher, who piled up 1,040 yards rushing in 10 games, at least one game fewer than the next 11 on that list.
If last season is any indication, perhaps the breakout is coming. In their 31-13 win over Army, Horvath ran wild, carrying 25 times for 208 yards and two scores, his second highest rush total in his collegiate career.
Army vs Navy Player Props Bet #2: Carson Smith Rush Yards
There’s nothing more enticing than a small prop number. In this case, running back Carson Smith has a gettable line of 15.5 yards.
Smith was down the depth chart it total carries in fifth, but he still averaged a respectable 4.0 yards per carry.
Navy’s defense was one of its weaker links this season, just 10th in the American in yards per game allowing just under 400 yards per contest, including a healthy number on the ground.
Navy Defense Stats
| Stat | Total (Rank) |
|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 26.9 (93rd) |
| Rush Yards Allowed Per Game | 143.2 (67th) |
| Pass Yards Allowed Per Game | 255.5 (129th) |
The real key here for the junior back is touches. He ran for just 23 total yards in the final two games of the season against Tulsa and UTSA, but he had just four carries in each games.
In four games with four carries or less, he’s failed to cross 16 yards. But with five carries or more? Smith has easily topped this rushing total, picking up at least 23 yards in the other five games.
Army vs Navy Parlay
| Picks | Odds |
|---|---|
| Blake Horvath Over 109.5 Rush Yards | -114 |
| Carson Smith Over 15.5 Rush Yards | -114 |
| Over 38.5 points | -105 |
| TOTAL ARMY vs NAVY PARLAY ODDS | +436 |
Let’s finish off with the total, which seems generous at 38.5 points.
Navy finished sixth in scoring in the conference, but at a robust 32.5 points per game. The cracked the 30+ point plateau eight times and the only games they finished Under 20 points in a game was when the competition levelled: a 31-17 loss to the high-octane North Texas Mean Green, and a 49-10 loss to No. 10 Notre Dame.
Navy cashed the Over five times in the final seven games of the season.
Will they need to carry the Black Knights with them over the finish line? There’s a possibility.
Army finished outside the Top 10 in scoring in the American at 23.6 points per game, and after cashing the Under in six straight contests, hit the Over in each of their last two contests.
While the Black Knights did tied for second in points allowed in the conference, they’re facing a Horvath-led team that hung 31 on them last year.
The Over has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings, and another one should be on the way.\
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