Early Florida vs Miami (FL) Prediction, Pick & Odds – CFB Week 4

Miami is rolling after its second win over a Top 25 opponent Florida is reeling after a damaging loss to LSU Check out my Florida vs Miami (FL) prediction and the betting odds below A great rivalry is renewed as the Florida Gators head to Miami Gardens to face the...

April 16, 2026 • 7:08 AM

Miami is rolling after its second win over a Top 25 opponent

Florida is reeling after a damaging loss to LSU

Check out my Florida vs Miami (FL) prediction and the betting odds below

A great rivalry is renewed as the Florida Gators head to Miami Gardens to face the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Florida (1-2) and No.4 Miami (3-0) meet for the 58th time. Miami plays host at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 20th, on an ABC broadcast.

I’ve made my Florida vs Miami (FL) prediction for Saturday and set out the betting odds with kickoff around the corner.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Prediction & Pick

Miami (FL) -7.5 (-110, DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKOffer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to

$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP

& GET $1,050BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Any conversation about Miami must begin with Heisman front-runner Carson Beck. Beck has been superlative thus far for the Canes. He leads the country with a 79.3% completion percentage, and he has an ACC-leading 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

While Florida is no longer ranked, Beck has picked on ranked teams to the tune of 545 yards and five touchdowns in Miami’s wins over Notre Dame and South Florida.

Carson Beck through three:

— 65-82

— 838 TOT YDs

— 8 TOT TDs

— 2 INTs

— 89.9 QBR (4th in the country)

Balling. pic.twitter.com/geWL2nwFNE

— CanesMuse (@canes_muse) September 15, 2025

Beck has a solid group of weapons around him, beginning with Mark Fletcher Jr. out of the backfield. Fletcher has run for multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games, and he averaged 7.5 yards per carry last week. The receiving corps has outperformed expectations with Malachi Toney (228 yards) and CJ Daniels (three touchdowns) standing out.

Florida is in a free-fall after starting off the season with a 55-0 win. In Week 2, USF shocked the Gators with a last-second field goal. Last week, it unraveled for Florida in one of the ugliest 10-point losses imaginable against LSU. DJ Lagway tossed five interceptions, becoming the first SEC quarterback since 2020 to throw five picks in a game.

DJ LAGWAY THROWS HIS 5TH INTERCEPTION OF THE NIGHT 😱 pic.twitter.com/iAlaByoqpM

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2025

Lagway has six interceptions in the last two games, sabotaging Florida’s chances at a hot start to the season.

Beyond Lagway, the Gators have had healthy production from running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh has rushed for 243 yards and a touchdown so far. Last week, he caught seven passes out of the backfield for 59 yards. Receivers Vernell Brown III (197 yards) and Eugene Wilson III (two touchdowns) have been capable options in the passing attack.

With this in mind, I am backing the red-hot Hurricanes to beat the Gators by at least eight points.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Betting Odds

Betting MarketFloridaMiami (FL)
Spread +7.5 (-106, FanDuel) -7.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Moneyline +250 (Caesars) -285 (FanDuel)
Total O 51.5 (-110, FanDuel) U 51.5 (-110, FanDuel)

The sportsbooks have Miami as home favorites with the total at 51.5. Over bettors can get over 51.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 51.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds.

Miami bettors should take them -7.5 at DraftKings (-110 odds) or -285 on the moneyline at FanDuel. Florida bettors should take them +7.5 at FanDuel (-106 odds) or +250 on the moneyline at Caesars.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 TO GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK

CLAIM OFFER

BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $10 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365

CLAIM OFFER

THESCORE BET SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE DIME TO GET 100% BET RESET UP TO $1,000

CLAIM OFFER

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!

CLAIM OFFER

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!

CLAIM OFFER

CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBDDYW & DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

FANATICS SPORTSBOOKGET 100% BET MATCH UP TO $100 FOR 10 DAYS

CLAIM OFFER

DRAFTKINGS T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings Sportsbook customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Bet must settle by and Token expires 5/3/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 4/26/26 at 11:59 PM ET.

BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply.

BETMGM T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

Odds as of September 16, 2025, at our top-rated college football betting apps. Make sure to take advantage of the best sportsbook promos when you sign up.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Last Five Matchups

DateScoreLocation
8/31/2024 Miami 41, Florida 17 Gainesville, FL
8/24/2019 Florida 24, Miami 20 Orlando, FL
9/7/2013 Miami 21, Florida 16 Miami Gardens, FL
9/6/2008 Florida 26, Miami 3 Gainesville, FL
12/31/2004 Miami 27, Florida 10 Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA)

Miami holds the lifetime series lead, posting a 30-27 record across the first 57 matchups. The schools had played every season (besides 1943) from 1938 to 1987 before taking a hiatus until the January 2001 Sugar Bowl.

Last season, the Canes cruised to a dominant win in Gainesville. Future No.1 overall pick Cam Ward threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns while Florida sputtered to just 261 total yards.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE U 🔥

MIAMI THUMPS FLORIDA 41-17 AT THE SWAMP TO GET THE SEASON-OPENING VICTORY 😤 pic.twitter.com/tCgjjJ8UWS

— ESPN (@espn) August 31, 2024

Lagway will look to exact revenge on the Canes. While he did not start for the Gators, he came in in relief of Graham Mertz, completing three of six passes for 31 yards and an interception.