The Rockets have the top offensive rating in the NBA. Is this the year they overtake the Warriors?
Will Kawhi Leonard end his self-imposed exile and rejoin the Spurs?
Find out why each Eastern Conference team won’t win the NBA championship
The NBA’s Western Conference contenders are a lot like Superman: they may appear unbeatable at first, but they all have a secret weakness that can be used against them. In the case of some clubs it’s an overreliance on threes, while in others it’s a crippling lack of playoff experience.
We’ve identified each team’s kryptonite and have set the odds on their chances of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June.
Houston Rockets: A History of Playoff Failure
The Rockets may look like winners, but the franchise is full of players and personnel who have consistently come up short in the playoffs. It starts at the top with Mike D’Antoni, who has a losing record in the postseason despite coaching multiple league MVPs.
Chris Paul’s been bounced out of the first round four times and has never advanced to the Conference Finals.
It continues with Chris Paul, who’s been bounced out of the first round four times and has never advanced to the Conference Finals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKE9auHKxq0
It extends to James Harden, who replaced Amelia Earhart as America’s most famous missing person after disappearing against the Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Rockets’ luck may change in 2018, but history is stacked against them.
Odds Houston will win the NBA championship: 13/7
Golden State Warriors: The Rockets Have Their Number
The Warriors may have been built to win championships, but the Rockets have been built to beat the Warriors, and so far this season they’ve done a damn good job of it. Houston has defeated Golden State in two of the three games they’ve played in 2017-18, and likely would have swept their Pacific Divisions rivals were it not for the fact Harden sat out their second match-up on January 4th.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69QFQR1N5KU
Befitting a team run by Daryl Morey, Houston also has an analytical advantage. The Rockets rank ahead of the Warriors in offensive rating, plus/minus, rebounding percentage, steals, and three pointers made and taken. You don’t need a calculator to know it all adds up to an early exit for the defending champs.
Odds Golden State will win the NBA championship: 7/3
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russ’s Crippling Lack of Self-Awareness
Russell Westbrook’s refusal to acknowledge his limitations is both his greatest gift and his greatest curse. It benefits the Thunder when he throws down ferocious dunks on players nearly twice his size, but it comes back to bite the team in the ass when he insists on launching 30-footers like he’s a brawny version of Steph Curry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_yHcwCwHJM
Westbrook is taking 4.1 threes per game this season and is hitting just 29-percent of them. That’s a major problem for a team with far more talented shooters, and it will lead to an early exit for OKC when he goes into hero mode and tries to shoot the Thunder back into games.
Odds Oklahoma City will win the NBA championship: 33/1
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San Antonio Spurs: Lack of Star Power
Historically speaking, only three teams in the last 23 years have won an NBA championship with just one All-Star. The Bulls did it in 1998 because of Michael Jordan, the Spurs pulled it off in 2003 thanks to Tim Duncan and a trio of future Hall of Famers, and Detroit did it in 2004 with a suffocating defense led by Ben Wallace.
Dame and CJ are good enough to win a game on their own, but the Blazers won’t begin winning series until all five players on the court touch the rock.
Odds Portland will win the NBA championship: 50/1
Utah Jazz: Their Best Player is a Rookie
Donovan Mitchell is a phenomenal player and deserving of the many plaudits he’s received this season. He’s also just 21-years-old and has only played 74 games in the NBA. In the last 60 years, the only rookies who have ever led their teams to an NBA championship are Bill Russell, Tom Heinsohn, and Magic Johnson. That’s it. Spida is good, but he isn’t that good.
Odds Utah will win the NBA championship: 100/1
Minnesota Timberwolves: No Jimmy G Buckets
Few teams rely more on their best player than the Timberwolves, who alternate between looking like the Harlem Globetrotters when Jimmy Butler is on the court, and the Washington Generals when he rests. That’s a particularly big concern since the four-time All-Star is still recovering from surgery to repair his right meniscus and has only recently returned to practicing with his teammates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7mNAviM31w
Until Butler is back at 100-percent, the Wolves have zero chance of raising a championship banner in 2018.
Odds Minnesota will win the NBA championship: 150/1
New Orleans Pelicans: An Appalling Lack of Depth
The Pelicans’ bench doesn’t have an catchy nickname, but if they’re looking for one we’d recommend The Witness Protection Program since their reserves are totally unidentifiable and disappear for long stretches at a time.
Odds Los Angeles will win the NBA championship: 1,000/1