I’ve made my Rangers vs Lightning prediction for Wednesday night’s game in Tampa Bay
New York enters 8-7-2 after a rare offensive explosion, while Tampa sits 8-5-2 with seven wins in 10 games
See my full Rangers vs Lightning picks, odds and how to watch below for Wednesday, November 12th
The Rangers and Lightning meet Wednesday night for the first time this season. Both teams sit at 18 points, although Tampa has been the hotter team lately, with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games, compared to New York’s 5-4-1.
New York just dropped six on Nashville Monday, but that looks like an outlier. Tampa’s been an under machine with nine of their last 12 staying at six or fewer goals. Puck drops at 7:00 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena.
Rangers vs Lightning Prediction
Sports Betting Dime •
November 12, 2025 at 10:00pm
Pick
Odds
Under +6
Over/Under
NHL • New York Rangers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
-110 on Caesars
CLOSED • 11/13/2025
See all 1 picks
Tally (Win %)
0-1-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$-10.00
ROI
-100.0%
Betslip #1762984830303-481c-909
The under is my best bet for Rangers vs Lightning. New York ranks dead last in the league at 2.41 goals per game. That 6-3 win over Nashville was their first seven-goal showing since early in the season, and every time they’ve had one of those rare offensive nights, they’ve hit the under in the next game.
Tampa’s been consistently low-scoring. Nine of their last 12 have stayed at six or fewer, with most landing right at five. The goaltending matchup backs this up. Vasilevskiy has won three straight, and the Under has hit in seven of his last 10. Shesterkin posted a .935 save percentage in a shutout loss to Carolina right before Monday.
The Rangers are creating 104 high-danger chances versus Tampa’s 81, but they’re only shooting 7.69% on those looks compared to the Lightning’s 14.81%. New York is generating quality looks, but not finishing.
Rangers vs Lightning 2025-26 Stats
| 2.41 | Goals Per Game | 3.07 |
| 2.53 | Goals Against Per Game | 2.73 |
| 14.0% | Power Play % | 18.0% |
| 80.4% | Penalty Kill % | 89.6% |
Defense is the story for both teams. The Rangers allow just 2.53 goals per game, ranking fourth in the NHL, while Tampa is close behind at 2.73 (eighth). The Rangers are brutal offensively, ranking 31st in goals, but their defensive structure keeps things tight.
Special teams are a clear edge for Tampa. The Lightning own the NHL’s top penalty kill at 89.6%, while the Rangers are at 80.4%. Tampa also has the advantage on the power play, converting at 18.0% compared to just 14.0% for New York, which ranks 30th.
Brandon Hagel is carrying Tampa with seven points in his last five, including five goals. Victor Hedman leads the team with 13 points and quarterbacks the power play. For New York, Alexis Lafreniere paces the squad with 12 points, while Artemi Panarin has 11 but sits at minus-7. Per the NHL odds, Tampa’s home ice and special teams advantage explain the pricing.
Brandon Hagel has the highest points projection in the NYR/TBL game tonight.
Been on a tear of late with 7 goals across his last 7 GP and the model puts him at 0.6 tonight.
He averages 2.9 SOG on 6.8 attempts a game, insanely low conversion% for a F, positive regression due? pic.twitter.com/UXDN8x1zJK
— StatsOverScore (@StatsOverScore) November 12, 2025
Tampa’s banged up. Anthony Cirelli, Max Crozier, Victor Hedman and Pontus Holmberg are all questionable. Dominic James and Ryan McDonagh are out indefinitely. New York’s only missing Matt Rempe.
The trends back the Under. It’s hit in four of Tampa’s last five at home and three of their last four after a win. For the Rangers, the Under is 6-1 in their last seven when the opponent allowed two or fewer previously. New York hit the Under in four straight before Monday and six of seven before the Nashville outlier.
My Rangers vs Lightning Prediction: Under 6 (-110 at Caesars)
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Odds as of Nov. 12th. Check out the NHL matchups page for all of today’s games.
How to Watch Rangers vs Lightning
| Info | Details |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, November 12, 2025 |
| Time | 7:00 PM ET |
| Location | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL |
| TV | TNT |
| Streaming | Max |
Watch the Rangers vs Lightning game on TNT starting at 7:00 pm ET. Stream it on Max if you don’t have cable.
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