Prediction site Kalshi.com has created a market on whether President Donald Trump will be allowed to run for a third term
The 22nd Amendment established a two-term limit for all presidents
See the latest odds that Trump is permitted to run for a third term in office in 2028
Though he’s not listed in the 2028 presidential election odds at this point, President Donald Trump has been the subject of intense search lately with respect to the potential he could run for a third term in office in four years’ time. Why the sudden interest from the general public? Because Trump himself told NBC News “There are methods which you could do [run for a third term]”.
Currently, the 22nd Amendment – enacted in 1951 – prohibits any president from running for a third term, but amendments can be repealed or further amended or reinterpreted (especially by a GOP-friendly Supreme Court). The prediction site Kalshi has posted a market on whether Trump will be permitted to run again in 2028. The “No” side is currently favored but the “Yes” side isn’t seen as an outlandish proposition.
Odds Trump Can Run for a Third Term
| Outcome | Latest Price | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 89% |
| Yes | 13¢ | 11% |
The footnotes at Kalshi clarify that, “If the 22nd Amendment is repealed or if the Supreme Court [reinterprets] the 22nd Amendment to permit an individual to be elected President more than twice before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Prices and percentages from Kalshi.com at 9:52 am ET, April 1st. Claim SBD’s Kalshi promo code to get a bonus to use at the site.
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