The odds to win the next Canadian election still favor Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives
The odds and polls have been moving in the Liberals’ favor over the last month
See the latest odds to win the next Canadian election, which will take place on or before Oct. 20, 2025
Just six weeks ago, oddsmakers and political traders alike considered the 2025 Canadian election all but a done deal. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party was as short as -4000, which equates to a 97.56% implied win probability. Fast forward to today, however, the odds are much narrower with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals making up significant ground.
Canadian Election Odds 2025
| Party | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi Price |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | -400 | 71¢ |
| Liberals | +250 | 29¢ |
| NDP | +10000 | 1¢ |
| Any Other Party | +10000 | N/A |
Note that the trading site Kalshi uses the current party leaders – Pierre Poilievre, Justin Trudeau, and Jagmeet Singh – as stand-ins for the party’s in their market titled “Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?” But the rules of that market make it clear that “If the first Prime Minister for the 45th Parliament is a member of the Conservative Party, then the [Poilievre] market resolves to Yes” and same for Trudeau and Singh, mutatis mutandis.
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKOffer
T&Cs
Bet $5, Get $250 If Your Bet Wins!
Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Offer not available in AR.
LOCK IN PROMO
SIGNUP PROMO
BET $5
GET $250IF YOUR BET WINS!
BET NOW
Odds and prices as of Feb 24 at FanDuel and Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi promo code to use on any trading market at the site.
Conservatives Still Favored
Make no mistake, the Conservatives are still the frontrunners. Their odds at FanDuel (-400) give them to an 80% implied win probability, while their 71¢ price at Kalshi gives them a 71% chance.
The alarming fact for Poilievre and company, though, is just how much ground they have conceded to the Liberals in a relatively short period of time. As mentioned at the top, the Conservatives were -4000 in this same market at FanDuel on Jan. 13th. They were trading at 95¢ at Kalshi early in the month of January.
The polls at that time showed Poilievre and the Conservatives with a 25% lead, nationally. FanDuel actually favored the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in the province of Quebec, to win more seats than the Liberal party and be the official opposition.
But as the second Donald Trump administration has sabre-rattled about annexation and imposed massive tariffs on Canadian imports, the polls in Canada have started moving away from the Conservatives – who are seen as the most Trump-esque – and toward the Liberals.
Liberals Benefiting from Second Trump Administration South of the Border
Embattled current Prime Minister Trudeau has not minced words when it comes to Trump’s attitude toward Canada. “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada will ever be the 51st state,” Trudeau firmly asserted during a press conference in Belgium earlier this month.
During his visit with world leaders in Brussels, Belgium, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reemphasized Canada's independence, saying there is "not a snowball's chance in hell that Canada will ever be the 51st state." pic.twitter.com/szPOTkKqbl
— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 14, 2025
After Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports (which could come into effect as early as March 4th), Trudeau’s Liberal government answered back with a pledge to impose their own 25% tariffs on US goods coming north of the border.
The latest poll aggregator from CBC shows Conservative support down to 41.8% with Liberal support shooting up to 27.4%. Importantly for the Libs, the support that’s leaving the Conservative Party seems to, almost entirely, be turning red, and they’re also picking up some orange outflow as well.
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has actually declined from 19.3% support on Jan. 13 to just 15.4% today.
The political market that FanDuel posted last month – which party will form the official opposition after the next election – has been taken down.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 TO GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK
CLAIM OFFER
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $10 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
CLAIM OFFER
THESCORE BET SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE DIME TO GET 100% BET RESET UP TO $1,000
CLAIM OFFER
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!
CLAIM OFFER
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!
CLAIM OFFER
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBDDYW & DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 WAGERS!
CLAIM OFFER
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKGET 100% BET MATCH UP TO $100 FOR 10 DAYS
CLAIM OFFER
DRAFTKINGS T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings Sportsbook customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Bet must settle by and Token expires 5/3/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 4/26/26 at 11:59 PM ET.
BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply.
BETMGM T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.