Kalshi has posted several prediction markets on tariffs, including when Trump will impose tariffs, and which countries will answer back
The current tariff odds heavily favor new tariffs before the end of the month, with the EU, Mexico and Canada the most-likely targets
See the full list of Donald Trump-related tariff odds and prediction markets at Kalshi
News outlets the world over are ablaze with talk of tariffs. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on several countries in his first few days in office. Monday brought something of an armistice as Trump delayed imposing tariffs on Mexico, and scheduled a follow-up call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Nonetheless, prediction site Kalshi has posted half-a-dozen tariff-focused markets, and the tariff odds almost universally favor imposition of new measures in the near future.
Donald Trump Tariff Odds & Prediction Markets
| NEW TARIFFS BEFORE MARCH | YES | NO | % CHANCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump impose tariffs on any country before March? | 88¢ | 13¢ | 86% |
| WILL TRUMP IMPOSE TARIFFS ON ____ THIS YEAR? | YES | NO | % CHANCE |
| European Union | 82¢ | 25¢ | 86% |
| Mexico | 75¢ | 30¢ | 72% |
| Canada | 70¢ | 39¢ | 69% |
| WILL ____ IMPOSE TARIFFS ON THE USA BEFORE JULY 1? | YES | NO | % CHANCE |
| China | 97¢ | 13¢ | 96% |
| European Union | 85¢ | 20¢ | 85% |
| Mexico | 83¢ | 23¢ | 82% |
| Canada | 79¢ | 26¢ | 74% |
| South Africa | 76¢ | 39¢ | 65% |
| Brazil | 63¢ | 48¢ | 55% |
| South Korea | 57¢ | 61¢ | 52% |
| India | 49¢ | 62¢ | 42% |
| Japan | 45¢ | 64¢ | 40% |
| LARGE TARIFFS IN TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR | YES | NO | % CHANCE |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first year? | 63¢ | 40¢ | 60% |
The final prop in the table, above, is worded subjectively. The relevant page at Kalshi clarifies that “[i]f … the U.S. average weighted tariff is at least 6% by Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.” So there is an objective benchmark by which the outcome will be determined.
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