Odds are available on who Donald Trump will pardon next
Steve Bannon is currently a top contender, according to Kalshi
Read below for analysis and predictions for who Trump will pardon next
Fresh off his election victory, Donald Trump has traders predicting who might get a presidential pardon first. With $2.6 million already bet on Kalshi’s prediction markets, Steve Bannon leads the pack. But his 33% odds suggest it’s far from a lock.
From former mayors to crypto figures, and even a couple of rappers, the list of potential pardon recipients has some interesting names in the mix.
Let’s take a look at the odds of who President Trump will pardon next, and offer our expert insight.
Who Will Donald Trump Pardon?
| Rank | Potential Pardon Recipient | Current Odds | Price Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Bannon | 33¢ (33%) | +2% |
| 2 | Eric Adams | 26¢ (26%) | -1% |
| 3 | Roger Ver | 29¢ (25%) | -2% |
| 4 | Julian Assange | 21¢ (21%) | — |
| 5 | Edward Snowden | 21¢ (20%) | +1% |
| 6 | Rudy Giuliani | 20¢ (19%) | +1% |
| 7 | Rod Blagojevich | 16¢ (16%) | -1% |
| 8 | Justin Sun | 15¢ (15%) | -2% |
| 9 | NBA YoungBoy | 7¢ (8%) | +3% |
| 10 | Young Thug | 7¢ (7%) | +1% |
Traders are putting their money on Steve Bannon as the most likely to get a pardon, though it’s still just a 1-in-3 chance. Former NYC Mayor Eric Adams is running second, while crypto figures Roger Ver and Justin Sun are in the mix, too.
Surprisingly, a couple of rappers made the top 10 – NBA YoungBoy and Young Thug. With $2.6 million already bet, people are clearly invested in figuring out who’s getting pardoned first.
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Longshots to Be Pardoned
NBA YoungBoy: 8% Chance (Trading at 7¢)
Kentrell DeSean Gaulden’s got a release date set for July 27, 2025, after working out a deal on federal gun and drug charges. He’s been in and out of court, with all the legal drama putting a serious dent in his music career.
Young Thug: 7% Chance (Trading at 7¢)
Young Thug just took a guilty plea in his big RICO case, which might help his chances. The trial got everyone talking about whether prosecutors should be allowed to use rap lyrics as evidence in court.
YOUNG THUG IS FREE!!!
HE HAS ACCEPTED A PLEA DEAL AND WILL SERVE 15 YEARS PROBATION pic.twitter.com/9oPiuUeXkz
— DailyRapFacts (@DailyRapFacts) October 31, 2024
Joe Exotic: 7% Chance (Trading at 7¢)
The Tiger King’s still holding out hope for a presidential get-out-of-jail-free card. He’s doing 22 years for trying to hire someone to take out a rival, and he’s been working every angle he can think of to catch Trump’s eye on social media.
Trump Pardoning Himself: 2% Chance (Trading at 2¢)
Nobody’s quite sure if a president can pardon themselves – it’s never been done before. Legal experts are still arguing about whether it’s allowed, but traders aren’t betting much on Trump taking this route.
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Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!
Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.